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Boise, Idaho

Markets

The Treasure Valley. All of it.

Nine cities. Five asset classes. Two exit paths. Each market has its own character, its own buyer pool, and its own investor fit. We underwrite them one by one.

The nine cities

Each market underwritten on its own terms.

We cover all five asset classes in every one of these cities. Flips, land, multifamily, SFH rentals, and buildable infill. The card tells you what the market is, not what one slice of it costs.

Data

Ten years of growth, one quarter of prices.

Population series run 2015 to 2025 per U.S. Census Bureau vintage and COMPASS 2025. Price charts reflect Redfin and Zillow March 2026 point-in-time figures — not annualized series.

ChartAll 9 Treasure Valley cities · 10-year population growth
Horizontal bar chart of 10-year population growth percentage for all nine Treasure Valley cities. Ada County cities in gold, Canyon County cities in purple.

Renew take

Star (+174.6%), Kuna (+90.8%), and Caldwell (+49.6%) are the growth-curve cities. Boise's curve is flatter not because demand is soft but because supply is constrained; the differential between Boise growth and Meridian growth is mostly absorption capacity, not demand. Don't read 'flat Boise' as 'soft Boise.'

What to watch

Annexation pipeline activity in Kuna + Middleton — those two are the 5-7 year land thesis if the City Councils greenlight.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau vintage 2023 and COMPASS 2025. Covers 2015–2025.

ChartAda County · major cities
Line chart of Boise, Meridian, and Eagle population 2015 through 2025.

Renew take

Meridian's slope steepened 2020-23 — it's the absorption engine right now. Eagle's shallow curve is supply constraint (foothills + 1-acre minimum zoning), not demand.

What to watch

Q3 building permits — if Meridian intake drops below 1,800/quarter, 2027 absorption math weakens.

Source: U.S. Census vintage and COMPASS 2025.

ChartAda County · growth cities
Line chart of Kuna, Star, and Garden City population 2015 through 2025. All three are Ada County.

Renew take

Star's +174.6% decade is steepest in the Valley but most of it came 2018-22. The 2024-25 deceleration is real and matches the 152-day DOM. Kuna's annexation-driven growth is the durable curve in this group.

What to watch

Star's developer-owned platted-lot sell-through. When new-build inventory days cross 90, resale comps follow.

Source: U.S. Census vintage and COMPASS 2025.

ChartCanyon County · all cities
Line chart of Nampa, Caldwell, and Middleton population 2015 through 2025.

Renew take

Nampa is Canyon's anchor — its absolute population growth dwarfs the others. Caldwell's accelerated post-2020 around the Indian Creek redevelopment. Middleton sits flat because supply is constrained by ETZ overlay; that's also the long-horizon land thesis.

What to watch

Insurance carrier re-rating on older Canyon stock — when claims-history premium increases hit 15%+, flip OpEx assumptions reset.

Source: U.S. Census vintage and COMPASS 2025.

ChartAda County · median price Q1 2026
Bar chart of Ada County city median sale prices as of March 2026.

Renew take

Eagle prints $789K — owner-occupant pricing, not investor cap-rate territory. The bulk of our flip + SFH-rental acquisitions land in the Boise/Meridian $470-540K band. Star and Kuna prints higher than expected because of new-build oversupply masking weaker resale comps.

What to watch

Days-on-market — when Eagle DOM crosses 60+, premium-tier sellers cut and entry-level moves laterally.

Source: Redfin and Zillow, March 2026. Point-in-time figures, not annualized.

ChartCanyon County · median price Q1 2026
Bar chart of Nampa, Caldwell, and Middleton median sale prices as of March 2026.

Renew take

Nampa anchors at $418K. Caldwell's spread between distressed-resale ($210-280K) and post-rehab ARV ($310-390K) is the flip thesis. Middleton's tight $340-460K band is real but the 26-transaction sample isn't enough for reliable comp underwriting.

What to watch

Caldwell building permit volume — capacity sets the cap on flip absorption per quarter.

Source: Redfin and Zillow, March 2026. Middleton based on Zillow 30-day rolling average (Redfin sample too small).

Last updated: April 2026. Population figures are COMPASS 2025 estimates; price figures are Redfin and Zillow March 2026 snapshots. All data is directional and refreshed quarterly.

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